top of page
Search

What Happens If China Removes Tariffs on 53 African Nations?

Exploring 3 Key Global Impacts (Positive and Negative)

ree

In June 2025, China announced it would remove all tariffs on imports from 53 African countries, aiming to boost trade and deepen ties with the continent. While the move is seen as a gesture of South-South cooperation, it brings with it a range of global consequences, both positive and negative.


1. Boost in African Exports – Rebalancing Global Trade

By eliminating tariffs, China opens a significant trade gateway for African nations, offering a pathway to strengthen their global trade standing. Countries such as Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Ghana stand to gain substantially by increasing exports of key sectors like agricultural produce, raw materials, textiles, and light manufacturing goods.


Stat: In 2023, China imported over $117 billion worth of goods from Africa, yet maintained a $62 billion trade surplus, largely due to higher-value Chinese exports dominating the trade relationship (Reuters, 2025). Removing tariffs on African exports could help reduce this imbalance and empower African economies to move up the value chain.


Beyond economic figures, this shift holds broader geopolitical implications. As tariff barriers fall, Africa has the opportunity to diversify its global supply chains and reduce historical overreliance on traditional Western markets. A strengthened China-Africa trade corridor could make African producers more competitive on the global stage, especially in commodities such as cocoa, coffee, cotton, rare earth minerals, and textiles.


Sectoral Gains:

  • Agriculture: Africa accounts for nearly 20% of the global cocoa supply, and Chinese demand for raw cocoa, cashew nuts, and fresh produce is rising (Crédit Agricole, 2023).

  • Textiles: With cost-effective labour and growing industrial zones, African textile exports could rise by 35–40% over the next five years with tariff-free access (Institute for African Trade and Policy, 2024).

  • Minerals: Africa supplies over 60% of the world’s cobalt, a critical material in China’s electric vehicle and tech industries (Our World in Data, 2024).

  • Light Manufacturing: Free trade access could drive a $10–15 billion annual increase in light-manufactured exports by 2030, according to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Secretariat (United Nations Office of the Special Adviser on Africa, 2024).


The bar chart below illustrates estimated export values from major African economies to China in 2023. These figures reflect both the existing potential and the room for growth, especially if tariff-free trade becomes a cornerstone of China-Africa economic relations.

ree

2. Risk to African Industries – Local Disruption

Despite the perceived benefits of rising exports, Africa’s deepening trade engagement with China carries troubling consequences for domestic industry. A major threat lies in the overwhelming influx of cheap Chinese imports, which often flood local markets and drastically undercut prices offered by African producers.


This creates an uneven playing field, pushing local manufacturers out of business and dismantling industries that are vital to long-term economic sovereignty.


Far from fostering sustainable development, such trade patterns risk locking African economies into a cycle of low-value exports and high dependence on foreign goods. As local industries collapse under competitive pressure, the continent risks becoming a passive consumer base for China’s surplus production.


This not only exacerbates unemployment and economic inequality but also erodes any serious attempt to build local capacity, technological know-how, or industrial self-reliance.


Moreover, the absence of robust safeguards and strategic policy responses raises serious questions about the long-term viability of Africa’s industrial base. Without decisive action to curb unfair trade practices, support domestic enterprise, and protect critical sectors, the current trajectory may leave African economies vulnerable, stagnant, and increasingly dependent on external powers for even the most basic manufactured goods.


3. Geopolitical Shifts & Debt Dynamics (Mixed Impact)

China’s influence over Africa grows significantly through such trade deals, challenging Western dominance in the region.

  • Stat: China is Africa’s largest trading partner, with trade exceeding $282 billion in 2023.

  • Strategic gain: It strengthens the Belt and Road Initiative and boosts China’s soft power in the Global South (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024).

But:

  • Debt warning: Africa owes over $30 billion to China as of 2024. Increased trade ties may lead to greater economic dependence and debt vulnerability. (Federation of African Finance, 2024)

  • Environmental impact: Critics warn of growing Chinese-led mining and infrastructure projects that lead to deforestation, pollution, and exploitation of natural resources.


Impact

Positive

Negative

Trade

More African exports, market access

Over-reliance on raw goods, dependency

Industry

Possible manufacturing growth

Local industries face collapse from Chinese competition

Geopolitical Influence

South-South cooperation reduces Western dependence

Risk of debt traps, environmental degradation


Final Thoughts

Removing tariffs for 53 African nations is a double-edged sword. It offers a path for African economic growth and a more balanced global trade, but risks economic dependency and local disruption if not managed carefully. The world must watch closely as this policy reshapes the economic and political map of Africa–China relations.


References

 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page